Estimating cultural heritage losses from flooding

In 2025, natural disasters generated substantial global losses, estimated at approximately US$224 billion according to Munich Re’s annual report. While monetary valuation of damages is essential for decision-making and risk management, some categories of loss remain difficult to quantify economically. Cultural heritage is a prime example, as impacts range from physical degradation to disruptions of community identity and sense of belonging. This study advances the assessment of direct tangible losses to cultural heritage from flooding, complementing existing research on indirect and intangible impacts. Direct tangible losses arise from contact between floodwater and artworks or heritage buildings, necessitating restoration. Restoration costs depend strongly on material characteristics, which determine vulnerability to water exposure. We develop new flood vulnerability models for estimating direct cultural heritage losses by integrating (i) historical records of post-flood restoration expenditures adjusted to current prices and (ii) detailed information on the quantity, spatial distribution, and material composition of artworks in heritage structures, including places of worship, museums, and libraries. The methodology is applied to the historic city of Florence, Italy, using data from 48 surveyed cultural heritage buildings to derive mean and percentile vulnerability curves. Under a 500-year flood scenario, average expected direct losses are approximately €2.5 million for building envelopes and €3 million for artworks per asset, resulting in total citywide cultural heritage damages of roughly €550 million. Combining these estimates with existing analyses of indirect and intangible losses provides a more comprehensive basis for risk assessment and management in art cities.