Capturing the overall impact of floods on people: evidence from the 2022 Marche Region flood event.

Floods generate a wide spectrum of impacts on society, ranging from direct to indirect and from tangible to intangible. While damage models are available for direct and tangible losses (e.g. damage to buildings), there is still a lack of tools capable of capturing the overall impact of floods on people.

To address this gap, we investigated the overall flood impact through an online survey conducted after the September 2022 flood in the Marche region of Italy. The survey collected approximately 700 responses from residents of affected municipalities, including directly exposed, indirectly exposed and non-exposed individuals. Respondents reported a self-assessed overall impact on a 0–6 severity scale. In this study, the overall impact on people is understood as the perceived personal impact resulting from the combined effect of multiple direct and indirect, tangible and intangible flood consequences. The survey collected information on these impact categories, together with data on hazard intensity, exposure conditions, and respondents’ socio-economic and social capital characteristics.

A combination of statistical techniques was employed to analyse the data, including multiple linear regression, factor analysis and cluster analysis. These methods were used to support the conceptualisation of the overall impact, to explore its potential for predictive modelling, and to investigate how different vulnerability characteristics are associated with variations in overall impact and in specific impact dimensions. Among the vulnerability variables considered, social capital indicators were found to play an important role in shaping the reported overall impact.

The results provide empirical insights that can inform policies aimed at reducing the indirect and intangible impacts of floods on people. By highlighting differences in impact experiences and the role of selected vulnerability characteristics, the study supports the design of post-event interventions that address broader social consequences.