Climate adaptation pathways for Ramsar wetlands: a co-creation approach integrating hydroclimate projections, ecological thresholds and local knowledge

Wetlands are internationally recognised for their ecological, cultural, and economic significance, providing critical ecosystem services such as biodiversity conservation, water quality improvement, and flood regulation. However, wetlands often face compounding challenges from climate change and historical river regulation, creating complex and uncertain futures that demand innovative adaptation strategies. Anticipating and responding to these challenges is particularly difficult given the interplay between hydrological alterations, ecological thresholds, and cultural values.

While models inform adaptation decisions, it is people who make them. Effective climate adaptation for wetlands hinges on matching assessment methods to problem complexity and co-producing solutions that integrate diverse knowledge systems. Despite substantial advances in modelling capabilities, critical gaps persist in translating outputs into actionable metrics for local management. Hydrological models often fail to capture complex, non-linear impacts, cumulative stressors, and higher-order system values such as connectivity and cultural-spiritual dimensions. Wetlands function as integrated socio-ecological systems, challenging the reductionist modelling approaches that decompose them into discrete components. Conversely, co-production of adaptation pathways required both local knowledge and evidence-based climate projections to provide a robust foundation for discussion and decision-making. Effective adaptation requires blending the best available science with local and Indigenous experiential knowledge, particularly for complex or chaotic impact pathways where historical analogues are absent.

This research addressed some of these challenges through co-creation and integrating human and hydroecological systems for climate adaptation planning. The study developed climate vulnerability assessments and adaptation roadmaps for three Ramsar-listed wetlands in the Murray–Darling Basin, Australia: Riverland, Barmah Forest, and the Macquarie Marshes, through a multidisciplinary, participatory process involving over 160 local and regional land and water managers. The approach integrated hydroclimate projections with local knowledge and Indigenous cultural values, adapted from established climate risk frameworks for Australian Ramsar sites and World Heritage areas. Hydroclimate information was developed from the best available climate and hydrological model outputs, and included past and future temperatures, rainfall volumes and characteristics, river flows, and inundation dynamics, providing scientific evidence to underpin the co-development process. A list of core site values and features were co-produced with participants, and their vulnerability assessed using combined qualitative and quantitative analyses to explore ecological thresholds and climate responses. Using spatial and temporal climate analogues and hydrological projections, visions of a changed future site were articulated, and adaptation pathways were co-developed to guide management towards climate-ready objectives while acknowledging significant ecological transformation.

By complementing quantitative modelling with participatory processes, this methodology fills a critical gap in adaptation research for complex ecosystems in highly regulated catchments. It offers a replicable framework for developing climate-ready management strategies that respect ecological integrity and cultural values while navigating some of the sources of uncertainty.