Investigating Socio-Hydrological Feedbacks in Drought and Flood Risk Adaptation: A Comparative Analysis Using the Paired Events Dataset

The paired events dataset that was published by Kreibich et al. (2023), provides a unique dataset on drought and flood risk adaptation between two extreme events across a variety of case studies. This study identifies changes in impacts and attributes them to changes in the different components of risk. It concludes that it remains a challenge to manage unprecedented events (Kreibich et al. 2022). This study and dataset have provided valuable insights in the change in impacts and risk, however, from the dataset it is unclear which underlying socio-hydrological dynamics have led to the variety of changes in risk and impacts across case studies. In this study, we develop a generic model to investigate the socio-hydrological feedbacks between hazard, management, vulnerability and exposure leading to the observed changes in impacts.

We use the model to compare the socio-hydrological processes across the different drought and flood case studies to identify differences in management and adaptation strategies. We show that a generic model, such as the model presented here, in combination with a consistent dataset, such as the paired events dataset, can be useful in comparing socio-hydrological processes across case studies. It can help explore the possibility space in an informed manner, though the identification of current pathways and, following from those current pathways, the identification of suitable adaptation strategies that have been successful in other cases.