1,4,5- 1Peking University, School of Physics, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, China (2301110311@stu.pku.edu.cn; ygliu@pku.edu.cn)
- 2Beijing Huairou Laboratory, Beijing, China (mzhang3477@hotmail.com)
- 3Pacific Typhoon Research Center, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China (haikunzhao@nuist.edu.cn)
- 4Center for Monsoon System Research, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China (caoxi09@mail.iap.ac.cn)
- 5Climate and Global Dynamic Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, USA (jiangzhu@ucar.edu)
While anthropogenic warming is projected to green the Sahara region, the potential impacts on tropical cyclone (TC) activity remain poorly understood. Here we examine the mid-Holocene (MH; ~6 ka BP) Sahara greening (characterized by expanded vegetation and substantially reduced dust emissions) as a potential analog for the future, combining high-resolution global atmospheric model simulations with paleoclimate proxy records. The simulation results demonstrate that Sahara greening dramatically reduced North Atlantic (NA) TC frequency to near-zero levels while causing minimal changes in other basins. In simulations without Sahara greening, the MH TC distribution resembles the pre-industrial pattern, albeit with an eastward shift of TC genesis in the North Pacific. The greening-induced TC suppression primarily resulted from two mechanisms: (1) enhanced vertical wind shear off West Africa and (2) reduced low-level moisture over the western tropical NA. These findings align well with reconstructed NA TC variability and may provide important insights into future TC activity under potential Sahara greening scenarios.
How to cite: Ou, Y., Zhang, M., Liu, Y., Zhao, H., Cao, X., and Zhu, J.: Green Sahara may have Diminished Atlantic Tropical Cyclones: Insights from the Mid-Holocene, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-10533, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-10533, 2026.
