Process-Based Modelling of Climate Change Impacts on Soil–Water Services in Mediterranean Vineyard Soils

Understanding how terrestrial ecosystems respond to climate change and human pressures requires an integrated analysis of soil–plant–atmosphere interactions and their consequences for ecosystem functioning and services. In agricultural systems, projected changes in precipitation regimes and hydrological pathways are expected to strongly affect soil water dynamics, plant functioning, and the capacity of soils to deliver key ecosystem services. Within the framework of the National Research Centre for Agricultural Technologies–National Recovery and Resilience Plan (AGRITECH-PNRR), this study investigates climate-driven responses of soil ecosystem services in a Mediterranean vineyard by combining field observations with process-based modelling.

The study was conducted at the Tenuta Donna Elvira vineyard (Montemiletto, southern Italy), a hilly agroecosystem characterized by two adjacent Cambisol profiles with similar pedogenesis but contrasting hydraulic properties. While both soils exhibit comparable hydraulic behaviour in deeper horizons, marked differences in water retention and hydraulic conductivity were observed in the upper soil layers, providing a natural setting to explore soil-specific controls on ecosystem processes. Continuous field observations, including soil water content and Leaf Area Index measurements, together with meteorological data, were used to calibrate and validate the process-based agro-hydrological model FLOWS.

The validated model was then applied to simulate soil–water–plant dynamics under bias-corrected climate projections from three General Circulation Models (MPI-ESM1-2-LR, MRI-ESM2-0, and GFDL-ESM4). Simulations covered four temporal horizons (current, near-, mid-, and far-future) under three CMIP6 emission scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP7.0, and RCP8.5), allowing an assessment of climate change impacts on multiple water-related soil ecosystem services, including runoff regulation, groundwater recharge, vine water stress, and phenological development.

Results reveal that ecosystem responses are strongly modulated by both emission scenarios and soil hydraulic characteristics. Under low-emission conditions (RCP2.6), grapevine phenology remains close to present-day conditions, whereas under higher-emission scenarios (RCP7.0 and RCP8.5) ripening advances by up to six weeks, indicating increasing pressure on crop–water management. Groundwater recharge exhibits only modest changes across scenarios, while runoff generation intensifies under higher emissions, increasing vulnerability to extreme rainfall events. Notably, one soil shows approximately 50% greater runoff mitigation capacity than the other, highlighting the critical role of soil-specific properties in regulating hydrological ecosystem services.

This study demonstrates how the integration of field observations and process-based modelling can improve our understanding of ecosystem responses to climate change and anthropogenic pressures. The results underline the importance of accounting for soil heterogeneity when assessing ecosystem services and designing site-specific adaptation strategies, while also highlighting key uncertainties related to climate model divergence and future rainfall intensity patterns. Overall, the work contributes to advancing predictive frameworks for sustainable ecosystem management under changing climatic conditions.