Thermo-hydraulic sensitivity of the North-Central European subsurface under glacial forcing

The subsurface of North-Central Europe has been shaped by repeated glaciations, which have altered pore pressure, temperature, and groundwater flow over geological timescales. Understanding these coupled thermo-hydraulic responses is essential for groundwater management, geothermal energy utilization, and subsurface storage applications such as CO₂ sequestration.

In this study, we investigate the thermo-hydraulic response of a multi-layered subsurface model of North-Central Europe over a time period the last glacial maximum up to present-day, while considering the thermal and hydraulic feedback of the glacier dynamics on the distribution in time and space of pore pressure and temperature.Independent hydraulic and thermal simulations are constructed, followed by controlled in which porosity and permeability are systematically varied within selected stratigraphic units while all other parameters are held constant. The resulting transient pore pressure and temperature fields are analyzed to assess the relative roles of conductive and advective heat transport and to identify formation-specific controls on pressure dissipation and thermal redistribution.

Based on the generated simulation ensemble, we further explore the development of physics-preserving, interpretable AI-assisted surrogate models and parameter estimation. These surrogates aim to efficiently reproduce key thermo-hydraulic responses while retaining physical consistency, thereby enabling rapid sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification in large-scale subsurface systems.