Developing a Comprehensive Framework for Risk Assessment in Maritime Heritage: The Case of Liman Tepe Coastal and Underwater Archaeological Site

Cultural heritage located in coastal and underwater environments is increasingly exposed to multi-hazard conditions shaped by natural processes, climate change, and anthropogenic pressures. However, risk assessment frameworks for maritime heritage still require further research tailored to their specific needs and characteristics, particularly in terms of the dynamics of submerged archaeological contexts. Addressing this gap, this study proposes a comprehensive and operational risk assessment framework, using the Liman Tepe Coastal and Underwater Archaeological Site (Urla, Izmir) as a case study. Liman Tepe constitutes one of the most significant continuous maritime settlements in the Eastern Mediterranean, offering insights into long-term cultural interaction, seaborne trade, and adaptation to coastal changes from the Chalcolithic Period onward. This coastal and underwater entity embodies built and archaeological heritage, cultural identity, values, and community, which are increasingly vulnerable to coastal hazards, sea-level dynamics, seismicity from regional fault systems, and contemporary development pressures. Historical evidence of disruption, including the 4.2 ka climatic event and the Minoan eruption, combined with various phases of reconstruction and conflict, highlights the relevance of resilience for maritime heritage contexts.

The development of the proposed framework begins with a methodology that performs two foundational tasks of identifying hazards and understanding values. These tasks utilize data collection and analysis consisting of fieldwork, archival research, and literature review. The outcomes not only reveal specific hazards and values but also enable the creation of a classification system essential for risk prevention. This system assesses how heritage, environment, and communities are impacted, based on their vulnerabilities. Then, the correlated key variables of hazard, vulnerability, exposure, and capacity are operationalized using a methodology that employs spatial analysis with GIS and numerical analysis through quantified scoring and ranking. Specifically, it processes eight hazard types (grouped into two classifications), six vulnerability groups, and eight distinct value categories. The resulting framework transforms risk concepts into practical tools of comprehensive diagrams and risk matrices. By providing a structured methodology tailored to maritime heritage, the study contributes to ongoing efforts to advance multi-hazard risk assessment in coastal and underwater archaeological sites and supports the development of knowledge-based resilience strategies within Mediterranean heritage contexts.