Investigating the Influence of 3D Urban Morphology on Land Surface Temperature in Central Asian Cities

Cities in Central Asia remain underrepresented in global urban and climate studies, despite significant climate impacts in the region. At the same time, rapid urban expansion in Central Asia is changing both the horizontal and vertical dimensions of the cities, creating complex thermal environments. Urban morphology, including both two-dimensional (2D) and three-dimensional (3D) structural characteristics, plays a crucial role in shaping surface urban heat island (sUHI) intensity. While most previous research has mainly focused on 2D indicators such as building density and land use, the influence of 3D urban features on land surface temperature (LST) remains underexplored.

To provide a regional-scale perspective, we first analyze urban growth and LST changes using Landsat and MODIS satellite time series in nine Central Asian cities. Next, we examine how urban morphology impacts LST across our cities, linking the findings to the observed urban growth trends.

We find significant urban growth, particularly in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. The LST trend analysis reveals rising temperatures in urban areas, exacerbating heat stress, particularly in rapidly expanding cities. However, the temperature changes are uneven with some cities showing significant warming, while others show daytime cooling particularly in newly developed dense urban areas. By integrating 3D urban morphology indicators with contemporary LST data and information on urban vegetation, we demonstrate that significant urban temperature deviations are driven not only by 2D factors but also by vertical urban structures. Our findings highlight the need to incorporate 3D urban metrics into climate adaptation and urban planning strategies to better manage urban heat and promote resilient cities in Central Asia.