Carbon stock in Central European forests: potential and reality

Forests are a cornerstone of nature-based climate mitigation, yet carbon stocks in managed Central European forests remain substantially below their full potential. Understanding this gap is essential for developing realistic mitigation strategies within the timeframe of national carbon neutrality targets.

We compare the current aboveground carbon stocks for Norway spruce (Picea abies), Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris), European beech (Fagus sylvatica), and oak (Quercus robur and Q. petraea) to their theoretical potential across Central European forests. Relying on a unique network of 593 long-term, unmanaged experimental plots throughout Europe that represent stand development under natural dynamics, we derive the carbon storage potential under maximum stocking density conditions. In contrast, realized carbon stocks are obtained from recent National Forest Inventory data (2024), which represent the current state of managed forests. Nonlinear growth models were fitted separately to experimental and inventory datasets, relating standing carbon stock to age and site productivity, while accounting for species-specific survival probabilities.

We reveal that Central European managed forests stay considerably below their full carbon storage potential compared to fully stocked and unmanaged forests of comparable age and site quality. Differences are highly species- and age-specific, with the largest gaps observed in middle-aged to maturing stands of European beech. Norway spruce stands also exhibited substantial potential, albeit with higher risks at older ages. Overall, we estimate that theoretically >500 *10⁶ t CO₂ equivalents could be stored by increasing C stock.

Using the most recent National Forest Inventory cycle, our estimates quantify the gap between potential and realized carbon storage across species and age classes. These findings provide a quantitative foundation for science-based decisions on forest mitigation capacity and for evaluating management scenarios that could help narrow this gap.