Pluvial Flood Risk Assessment in a Small Coastal Historic Settlement: The Case of Çeşme

Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of pluvial (rainwater-induced) flooding, creating emerging risks for small urban settlements with historic fabric and limited adaptive capacity. Across the Mediterranean, many coastal towns with significant heritage assets are exposed to short-duration, high-intensity rainfall events. Çeşme, located on the Karaburun Peninsula, represents a relevant case where hydro-meteorological hazards intersect with cultural heritage conservation. Designated as an “Urban Conservation Area,” the historic settlement contains built and archaeological heritage, while its coastal and topographical setting renders it highly sensitive to cloudburst-like episodes.

Analysis of precipitation data (1994-2025) indicates a marked rise in intense rainfall events, particularly after 2010. Extreme episodes expected to have long return periods are now recurring in rapid succession. Documented pluvial floods in 2015 (166 mm), 2024 (82 mm), and late 2025 (132 mm) repeatedly affected the settlement. In addition, even moderate precipitation triggered surface flooding. This sensitivity is amplified by rapid tourism-driven development, the expansion of impervious surfaces, and shoreline modifications.

To assess flood dynamics and heritage exposure, this study conducts a basin-scale GIS-based flood risk assessment using ArcGIS Pro, integrating topography, drainage patterns, geological and hydrogeological background, CORINE land cover, historical aerial imagery and building-scale impervious surface data. Flood-related indicators were spatially analysed and subsequently downscaled to the historic core to evaluate exposure and vulnerability at street and building levels. The assessment was developed through interdisciplinary collaboration between geologists, architects and cultural heritage conservation specialists. The resulting multi-scale analysis identifies flood-prone zones, vulnerable heritage structures and critical micro-topographic runoff pathways, providing a spatial basis for future pluvial flood risk management and heritage-sensitive mitigation and adaptation strategies in small coastal historic settlements under ongoing climate change.