Understanding Flood Preparedness and Risk Perception After Extreme Events: Survey and Experimental Evidence from Italy

In 2023 and 2024, Italy experienced severe flooding events with substantial environmental and socio-economic consequences. As climate change increases the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, understanding individuals’ flood risk perceptions, preparedness, and responses to risk communication is crucial for effective climate adaptation and mitigation policies. In this work we assess preparedness against floods and risk perceptions, and examines whether targeted flood risk information can enhance risk awareness, pro-environmental behavior, and support for climate policies. To this aim, an original survey instrument was designed and administered to a representative sample of 3,423 residents in Emilia-Romagna and Tuscany in July 2024, following the 2023 flood events. The survey collected detailed information on socio-demographic characteristics, flood risk perceptions, preparedness and mitigation measures, awareness of municipal response strategies, information sources, and policy expectations. A key contribution of the study is the integration of survey responses with official flood hazard data, enabling a comparison between perceived and actual flood risk exposure. In December 2024, after new devastating floods in Italy, we conducted a follow-up survey, to allow us examining changes in preparedness and perceptions over time.

Across both surveys, we implemented pre-registered randomized experiments to assess the causal impact of flood risk communication. In the first survey, treated respondents received municipality-specific flood risk information after reporting their place of residence. In the second one, treated respondents watched a 75-second video explaining the causes, consequences, and dangers of floods. Results show that overall preparedness is low, with around 70% of respondents reporting no adaptive actions, but that targeted risk information delivered through effective visual messages significantly increases flood risk awareness, pro-environmental behavior, and support for climate-related policies. These findings highlight the importance of using direct, visually effective, and context-specific risk communication in fostering climate adaptation and public support for mitigation efforts.