Integrated System Dynamics Modelling of the Community Solar PV Mini-grid Operations

Community mini-grids are small, decentralised power systems that supply electricity to groups of households, local businesses, and community facilities within a village or neighbourhood. They serve as a promising solution to achieve SDG 7 goals in the regions where central grid extension remains uncertain or faces reliability challenges. The real performance of the mini-grids, however, cannot be understood through the physical systems (hardware) alone. These systems evolve within the communities (people), depend on the local institutions (structure), and are shaped by the environmental conditions. This study presents an integrated modelling approach that brings these layers together to understand how the community Solar PV mini-grids, as a 'socio-technical system', behave over time and what supports their long-term operational sustainability.

The approach brings together system dynamics with a probabilistic modelling of uncertainty. System dynamics helps make sense of how everyday elements such as the condition of the physical system, the routine maintenance, the growing demand, the revenue flow, the community satisfaction, and the local institutional practices gradually influence one another. Many of these relationships may be overlooked when seen separately, but they become clearer once the feedbacks over time are mapped together. The probabilistic component adds a way to deal with the uncertainty that surrounds the community engagement, the payment behaviour, the institutional reliability, and the chances of key operational events. This allows the model to explore a range of possible scenarios instead of relying on a single prediction.

The modelling efforts begin with the development of the causal loop diagrams (CLDs) based on the existing literature on mini-grid operations and insights obtained through interactions with the stakeholders. CLDs reflect the ground realities that influence the operations, such as informal load expansion, changes in expectations of service quality, and delays in billing recovery or maintenance. The CLDs are then translated into a stock-flow model that simulates how the system evolves. This holistic approach helps identify which interactions strengthen the system's performance and which ones push it toward unsustainable operations.

Real-world case studies from the mini-grids across India and a few international ones are used to test the approach. This allows the model to explore how different local contexts shape the operational behaviour. The findings show that sustainable operations emerge by balancing many interconnected elements. The scenarios also identify safe operating spaces where operational sustainability can be maintained even under uncertainty. The work offers a structured way to integrate the social and the technical dimensions into one modelling framework. It provides a practical tool for planning, decision-making, and long-term management of the community mini-grids. It also supports a deeper understanding of why some systems sustain the operations while others face dysfunctionality.

The work can be extended in future through a multi-level perspective (MLP) in order to connect the daily operational dynamics with the wider patterns of the socio-technical transition. This will explore how niche-level practices within the community mini-grids interact with the broader regime forces and the landscape pressures, e.g. main grid arrival, and how these interactions shape the long-term energy transitions.