Understanding Complexity to Anticipate Maladaptation: A System Dynamics Approach to Climate Extremes Adaptation with Climate Services

The risk of extreme climate events is increasing due to the compounding effects of climate change and the increasing dependence on natural resources, with impacts that cascade through ecosystems, livelihoods, and institutions long after the event itself. Climate services are therefore increasingly central to adaptation, providing information that helps anticipate hazards, guide preparedness, and support response. Yet, adaptation can often turn maladaptive when it unintentionally shifts risk to other groups, degrades ecological buffers, or locks systems into trajectories that increase their long-term vulnerability. Climate services rarely account for these unintended consequences, despite their centrality in what decisions can be taken and by whom. Against this backdrop, our contribution presents a methodological framework that integrates system thinking and system dynamics modelling to anticipate how climate services shape long-term socio-ecological outcomes of climate extremes, including the risk of maladaptation.

Our framework combines four elements. First, we use system archetypes to identify recurring maladaptive patterns relevant to extremes’ impacts, such as risk shifting across space or social groups, and “fixes” that reduce immediate losses while degrading ecological resilience. Second, these dynamics are refined through a stakeholder-led iterative process. Third, maladaptation risk and adaptation trade-offs are evaluated and described. Fourth, these dynamics are formalized in a system dynamics model to test different climate information scenarios.

Our application of this framework shows that different typologies of climate services can influence long-term impact trajectories by influencing what risks are prioritized, which measures are selected, and who is able to act. Additionally, under increasing climate variability and compounding shocks, these dynamics become more pronounced, increasing the likelihood that short-term coping undermines long-term resilience. Consequently, accessible and long-term climate services become pivotal in ensuring sustainable adaptive strategies benefitting all stakeholders.

By linking climate services to the complex, socio-ecological impact of climate extremes, this approach lays the groundwork for testing the risk of maladaptation in the development of climate services and adaptation strategies, supporting equitable and durable disaster impact reductions.