,,- University of Valencia, Image and Signal Processing, Electrical Engineering, València, Spain (nathan.mankovich@gmail.com)
The problem of forced response estimation from a single realization was addressed in the recent ForceSMIP project [Wills et al. 2025], which compiles many state-of-the-art statistical methods, including both methods supervised by large Earth System Model (ESM) ensembles and methods that use only a single target climate realization. Single-realization estimation is frequently approached using various linear filtering techniques, in particular Linear Inverse Models (LIMs) and Dynamic Mode Decomposition (DMD) [Penland et al. 1995 and Schmid 2010]. Standard LIM and DMD do not explicitly account for external forcing. DMD with control (DMDc) naturally extends these methods to incorporate essential external forcing information as a control variable [Proctor et al. 2016].
We investigate how these forcing inputs can be incorporated into the DMDc model to estimate forced responses. This results in three variants of DMDc for forced response estimation. One variant was already used in Tier 1 of the ForceSMIP project, while the other two have yet to be tested. We evaluate all three methods using near-surface air temperature (tas) and sea-level pressure (psl) from four Earth system models (CanESM5, MIROC6, MPI-ESM, and MPI-ESM1-2-LR) using data from MMLEA v2 [Maher et al. 2025]. Specifically, we analyze their ability to recover forced responses and characterize the DMDc variants across these Earth system models and variables.
References:
Maher, Nicola, et al. "The Updated Multi-Model Large Ensemble Archive and the Climate Variability Diagnostics Package: New Tools for the Study of Climate Variability and Change." Geoscientific Model Development 18.18 (2025): 6341-6365.
Penland, Cécile, and Prashant D. Sardeshmukh. "The Optimal Growth of Tropical Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies." Journal of Climate 8.8 (1995): 1999-2024.
Proctor, Joshua L., Steven L. Brunton, and J. Nathan Kutz. "Dynamic Mode Decomposition with Control." SIAM Journal on Applied Dynamical Systems 15.1 (2016): 142-161.
Schmid, Peter J. "Dynamic Mode Decomposition of Numerical and Experimental Data." Journal of Fluid Mechanics 656 (2010): 5-28.
Wills, Robert CJ, et al. "Forced Component Estimation Statistical Method Intercomparison Project (ForceSMIP)." Authorea Preprints (2025).
How to cite: Mankovich, N., Gavrilov, A., and Camps-Valls, G.: Dynamic Mode Decomposition with Control for Forced Response Estimation, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-11895, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-11895, 2026.
