Back to the future: leveraging event-based participatory storylines for mixed-method risk assessments

The increasing complexity of the risk landscape, exacerbated by social, environmental, and climate changes, makes understanding, managing, and communicating multi- and systemic risk events crucial. In recent years, the concept of storylines has gained attention in academic and policy circles as a way to communicate and understand complex risk scenarios. While the existing literature highlights the potential of storylines for framing and contextualising risks, systemic- and multi-risk considerations remain fragmented and often overlooked. Addressing this complexity requires innovative frameworks that integrate diverse perspectives and account for the dynamic and interdependent nature of risks.

This study presents two storylines developed for the Veneto Region under the EU-funded MYRIAD-EU project with a threefold objective: facilitate discussion with stakeholders, raise awareness on multi- and systemic risks, and identify key current/future multi- and systemic risks, to further support the development of forward-looking disaster risk management (DRM) pathways towards greater resilience.

The storylines, co-created with key local stakeholders through a participatory process,  includes the region’s main characteristics, geography and climate, socio-economic context, risk profile, the analysis of a baseline past event, and a description of plausible future scenarios and expected key risks. Qualitative analysis of interviews and focus group discussions with core stakeholders was conducted to identify a benchmark event with multi- and systemic risk characteristics that had a significant impact on the region in recent years. The Vaia storm of 27-30 October 2018, the largest storm ever recorded in Italy, which also impacted Austria, France, and Switzerland, was chosen. This storm has been recognised as an extreme hydrometeorological event characterized by multiple hazards with cascading effects that caused severe cross-sectoral impacts and whose frequency and intensity will likely be influenced by climate change. Information shared by stakeholders, supplemented by results from a scientific literature review contributed to the characterization of the event and its impact chains across sectors. Counterfactuals to develop the storylines and identify future plausible scenarios were chosen based on the discussion with stakeholders, scientific literature, quantitative analyses, studies and policy documents, including the Regional Strategy for Climate Change Adaptation (SRACC). The final output of the study was visualised using ArcGIS StoryMap web-based tool.

This study illustrates how the integration of quantitative and qualitative analyses can be effectively employed to co-develop risk storylines, offering a valuable approach to both scientific inquiry and policy engagement.