The Middle East’s Triple Treat: Drought, Dust, and Sinking Lands

The Middle East is situated in the desert belt of the Northern Hemisphere, where the average annual rainfall is just one-third of the global average, and evapotranspiration rates are three times higher than the global average. The average renewable water resources in the region are approximately 1,200 cubic meters per person per year, compared to the global average of around 7,000 cubic meters per person per year.

The region is experiencing one of the highest population growth rates, which has increased the demand for water resources. The area faces both physical and economic water scarcity, aggravated by mismanagement and climate change, which further strain water resources. Most climate change studies predict a drier climate for the Middle East over the next century, with reductions in precipitation of 20-30% and increases in temperature of up to 4° C, leading to less water availability for an ever-growing population.

Using regional case studies and cross-sectoral analysis, this study demonstrates how the interaction between climate variability and anthropogenic mismanagement has already resulted in environmental degradation, including accelerated groundwater depletion, widespread land subsidence, progressive soil and land degradation, shrinking surface water bodies, and a marked increase in dust storm frequency and intensity. Importantly, these impacts propagate beyond national borders, creating transboundary environmental hazards that affect regional stability, food security, and public health. The results highlight shared vulnerability hotspots and reveal common drivers across river basins and aquifer systems. Based on these findings, the study evaluates targeted adaptation scenarios, emphasizing improved groundwater governance, land and dust storm detection and mitigation, and coordinated transboundary water management as priority pathways to enhance regional resilience under a changing climate.