ENSO teleconnection to the North Atlantic under greenhouse warming and its modulation by the Tropical North Atlantic

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a major driver of climate variability in the North Atlantic through atmospheric teleconnections that influence circulation patterns and climate conditions across the Euro-Atlantic region. These teleconnections constitute an important source of interannual climate variability and predictability. Previous studies suggest that, under greenhouse-warming scenarios, ENSO teleconnections to the North Atlantic are likely to intensify, largely as a result of changes in the mean climate state and projected modifications in ENSO characteristics.

In this study, we show that changes in ENSO–North Atlantic teleconnections under global warming have significant implications for seasonal climate predictability over Europe. Our results show that a strengthening and reorganization of these teleconnections alters the robustness and spatial coherence of ENSO-related climate signals, thereby directly influencing predictability in the Euro-Atlantic sector.

In addition, we explore the potential role of the Tropical North Atlantic as a modulator of ENSO teleconnections to Europe. Previous studies suggest that variability in Tropical North Atlantic sea surface temperatures can influence the atmospheric response to ENSO, potentially modifying its impact on the North Atlantic and European climate. Our results support the idea that the Tropical North Atlantic may play an important role in shaping ENSO-related climate signals and their predictability.