A computationally efficient framework for modelling estuarine biogeochemistry

Estuarine systems are crucial in deciphering coastal ocean dynamics and biogeochemistry, including the vital role they play as ecological sequesters of greenhouse gases. We present a modelling framework that combines the Estuary Box Model (EBM) with the Biogeochemical Flux Model (BFM) to simulate the interplay between physical dynamics and biogeochemical processes. The EBM is a robust, yet simplified model that represents estuarine hydrodynamics, addressing salinity, temperature, and freshwater discharge variations. The BFM simulates nutrient cycling, microbial interactions, phytoplankton dynamics, organic matter mineralization and particulate sedimentation across chemical functional families and living functional groups. To realistically simulate estuarine scenarios, the passive tracer transport equation was adapted to include explicit biogeochemical reaction terms within a time-varying estuarine simplified control volume, furthermore, accounting for riverine nutrient inputs, vertical mixing, tidal exchange and various biological feedback. Additional alterations were made to accommodate burial and sequestration parameters better representing estuarine zones.
The coupled framework was applied to the Po di Goro estuary in northern Italy, and the simulations were conducted for the period 2010 to 2023. The results were validated by comparing the Chlorophyll concentration outputs against satellite and in-situ buoy observations. The outcomes show a strong correlation between phytoplankton biomass and residence time during periods of algal blooms, whereas a rapid shift to zooplankton propelled top-down grazing control during prolonged periods of stable conditions. The model effectively replicates the organic matter sedimentation dynamics typical of deltaic environments, offering insights into the scale and factors controlling the burial and sequestration of organic matter in these ecosystems. The coupled EBM-BFM system is a highly computationally efficient and scalable framework for understanding the estuarine ecosystem drivers, with important potential applications in biogeochemical variability, nutrient retention, and climate-driven changes in coastal zones.