Northern Hemisphere warming hotspots linked to intensified tripole wind anomaly patterns

Spatially heterogeneous surface warming across continents is strongly governed by atmospheric circulation changes, as demonstrated by observations and climate models. The accelerated warming observed in eastern Europe, northwestern China, eastern Siberia, and western North America aligns with the long-term changes in upper-level zonal winds. However, the hemispheric-scale structure of the upper-tropospheric zonal wind field linked to regional heat extremes remains poorly understood. Using a complex network approach, we identify a north–south-oriented tripole wind anomaly pattern characterised by westerly–easterly–westerly zonal wind anomalies surrounding heat extremes. Variability in this tripole pattern explains up to 70% of the dynamics-induced interannual temperature variability and at least 50% of its long-term warming trend in hotspot regions. Multiple climate models project that the dynamics-induced temperature trend over western North America will double by the end of the 21st century in response to an amplified tripole wind anomaly pattern. Our findings highlight the need to integrate upper-level wind-field dynamics for predicting regional surface temperature.