Characterization of aviation turbulence associated with Mediterranean tropical-like cyclones (Medicanes)

The Mediterranean is a climatologically sensitive region due to its transitional position between the arid subtropics and the wetter mid-latitudes. In recent years, Mediterranean tropical-like cyclones, or Medicanes, have gained increasing attention. These rare baroclinic cyclones that evolve in their mature stage into vortices with structural characteristics similar to tropical cyclones. Although they occur only a few times per decade, Medicanes can produce severe socio-economic impacts through intense precipitation, strong winds, and coastal flooding. 

Observational and modeling studies indicate that rising sea surface temperatures may affect Medicane evolution, potentially leading to stronger storms. Understanding their dynamics is therefore important not only for climatology but also for operational sectors such as aviation, which are directly exposed to atmospheric hazards. While the surface impacts of Medicanes have been widely studied, their influence on upper-tropospheric conditions, particularly turbulence relevant to aviation, remains poorly documented. In-flight encounters with turbulent eddies represent a major aviation hazard, often resulting in injuries, aircraft damage, and economic losses to airlines. 

This study presents the first systematic investigation of aviation-scale turbulence associated with eleven Medicanes that occurred between 1996 and 2023. The analysis is based on three empirical turbulence diagnostics (TI1, TI2, and TI3), commonly used to identify synoptic-scale patterns conducive to shear-induced turbulence. These indices, derived from the ERA5 reanalysis dataset, are computed for each Medicane across the 900–200 hPa layer and as a function of radial distance from the cyclone center, with the aim of assessing how turbulence conditions within Medicanes evolve in a changing climate.