1,3,4,5,7,1,9- 1Centre for Agroecology, Water & Resilience, Coventry University, Coventry, United Kingdom
- 2Water for Production Department, Ministry of Water and Environment, Uganda
- 3Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Kyambogo University, Uganda
- 4Institute of Hydrology and Water Management, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU), Vienna, Austria
- 5International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria
- 6Laboratoire Leïdi “Dynamique des territoires et développement”, Université Gaston Berger (UGB), BP 234 Saint Louis, Senegal
- 7Espace-Dev (UMR 228), University of Montpellier & IRD, Montpellier, France
- 8Centre for Trust, Peace and Social Relations (CTPSR), Coventry University, Coventry, UK
- 9College of Agriculture and Environmental Sciences, UNISA, FL, South Africa
The likelihood of unprecedented precipitation extremes is increasing across Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), yet where and when future events may exceed the full range of historical experience remains understudied. While previous studies have documented historical trends and projected changes in precipitation extremes across sub regions of Africa, integrated SSA-wide assessments explicitly identifying hotspots of record-breaking precipitation extremes remain limited.
Here, we present a sub-continental, SSA-wide assessment of the emergence of unprecedented precipitation extremes under future climate change. Unprecedented extremes are defined as future events (2030-2100) that exceed the observed and simulated range during a historical reference period (1950-2014). Using precipitation-based extreme metrics relevant to water security (e.g., maximum 1-day rainfall, maximum 5-day rainfall, consecutive wet and dry days, maximum and minimum seasonal rainfall amount), derived from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project – Phase 6 (CMIP6) multi-model large-ensembles, we explicitly assess the future time and regional hotspot of emergence of record-breaking precipitation conditions. We also examine changes in the probability of emergence of unprecedented extremes and their potential large-scale ocean-atmospheric drivers (e.g., El Nino-Southern Oscillation, Atlantic Multidecadal Variability, and Indian Ocean Dipole), while accounting for uncertainties associated with both model physics and internal climate variability.
By systematically identifying where and when observed and retrospectively simulated precipitation limits are exceeded, this study offers a new sub-continental perspective on the emergence of unprecedented hydroclimatic conditions and provides a robust foundation for assessing future water security risks and supporting climate-resilient planning in Sub-Saharan Africa under increasing hydroclimatic uncertainty.
How to cite: Oramah, S., Dieppois, B., Ekolu, J., Onyutha, C., Stecher, G., Nkwasa, A., Diop, S. B., Tramblay, Y., Sultan, B., Northey, J., and van de Wiel, M.: Identifying hotspots for the emergence of unprecedented precipitation extremes in Sub-Saharan Africa under climate change, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-12824, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-12824, 2026.
