Quantifying Cascading Economic, Social, and Health Impacts of Flooding

Flood risk emerges from dynamic interactions among climate extremes, human systems, and cascading impact pathways that extend into economic, social, and health domains. Traditional risk assessments often inadequately represent these interdependencies. Responding to emerging evidence that flood risk is shaped by interdependencies, health impacts, and evolving vulnerability, my research develops a suite of methodological approaches to advance systemic flood risk modelling. These include system dynamics modelling to capture feedback between hazard, exposure, vulnerability, and human adaptation; hierarchical Bayesian regression and multivariate statistical models to quantify cascading impacts across sectors and scales; and scenario-based simulations that explore how changes in drivers and adaptive responses modulate risk pathways. We further leverage longitudinal survey datasets, probabilistic methods, and open datasets to bridge local empirical findings with broader flood risk dynamics. By integrating health risk metrics which are often missing from conventional frameworks alongside economic and social outcomes, our methods aim to quantify the full cascade of flood impacts and support evidence-based adaptation strategies and inclusive disaster risk management that reflect the complex Human–Flood system.