Accountability for climate damage caused by Russia’s war against Ukraine

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022 has inflicted immense human suffering, widespread destruction of infrastructure, and severe environmental damage. Beyond the pollution of soil, water, and air, the war has resulted in the release of large quantities of greenhouse gases (GHGs)—emissions that would not have occurred in the absence of this war.

A group of Ukrainian and international scientists has been tracking and estimating the GHG emissions attributable to the war, regularly updating their assessments as the conflict evolves. The Initiative on GHG Accounting of War has developed innovative methodologies for different impact categories, including Landscape Fires, where remote sensing is used to assess damage to carbon sinks such as forests. Recently, the Initiative published Guidance on the Assessment of Conflict-Related GHG Emissions, providing a framework for assessing emissions from other armed conflicts worldwide.

The next critical step is to hold the Russian Federation accountable for the climate damage caused by these emissions. In a resolution adopted on 14 November 2022, the UN General Assembly called for the establishment of an international mechanism for reparation for damage, loss, or injury arising from Russia’s internationally wrongful acts in or against Ukraine. Under the auspices of the Council of Europe, an International Compensation Mechanism is currently being established. One of the damage categories, B3.1 Environmental Damage, covers adverse impacts on fauna, flora, soil, water, air, and ecosystems. Since the climate system is one of the most fundamental ecosystems, compensation for climate damage will be claimed under this category. The scientific assessments mentioned above will provide the necessary evidence and quantification of the harm incurred.

During COP30 in Brazil, Ukraine announced it will submit a climate damage claim to the International Compensation Mechanism in 2026. If such a claim is awarded, it would mark the first time a state has been held accountable for GHG emissions resulting from an unlawful act. This aligns with the advisory opinion of the International Court of Justice (ICJ), which states that all states have a responsibility to protect the climate system.

Compensation awarded to Ukraine could be directed toward a low-carbon reconstruction, prioritising energy efficiency and renewable energy, restoration of destroyed carbon sinks through reforestation. Potentially compensation could be used to support  vulnerable countries most affected by extreme weather events linked to climate change.