Climate Risk as a Societal Challenge: Social Vulnerability in the Belgian Climate Risk Assessment

Climate change and ecosystem degradation constitute a systemic societal challenge, with impacts shaped not only by physical hazards but also by social vulnerability and institutional capacity. Understanding how climate risks translate into differentiated human impacts is therefore critical for effective and equitable adaptation. The Belgian Climate Risk Assessment (BCRA) adopts this perspective by assessing climate and ecosystem risks as societal risks with unequal human consequences, affecting health, livelihoods, living conditions and social cohesion.

Synthesising evidence across climate, health, economic and social systems, the assessment finds that climate change is likely to intensify existing social inequalities in Belgium through compounding and cascading effects, placing disproportionate burdens on vulnerable population groups. Risks related to heat, flooding, water stress, food price volatility, health system disruption, etc. interact with socio-economic factors such as income, housing quality, age, health status and access to services. These interactions generate spatially concentrated patterns of vulnerability, particularly in urban environments and historically disadvantaged areas, where physical exposure coincides with limited adaptive capacity.

Despite relatively strong social protection systems, the BCRA identifies structural gaps in preparedness. Climate-related social vulnerabilities remain insufficiently integrated into adaptation planning, preventive measures are underfinanced, and institutional fragmentation constrains coordinated, place-based responses. The assessment further shows that adaptation measures have significant distributional implications: without explicit attention to equity, they risk reinforcing existing vulnerabilities rather than reducing risk.

At the same time, the BCRA demonstrates that anticipatory and targeted adaptation can reduce risk while delivering co-benefits. Eco-conscious social protection mechanisms can play a key role in strengthening societal resilience. Place-sensitive interventions, including nature-based solutions, can address physical hazards while strengthening health, well-being and social resilience. By embedding social vulnerability analysis within a national climate risk framework, the BCRA strengthens the science–policy interface by translating complex risk interactions into decision-relevant evidence for equitable, impact-driven adaptation across governance levels, directly supporting European climate resilience objectives.