Assessment of Current Water Use and Future Water Availability for Planning and Allocation in the Cuvelai-Etosha Basin, Namibia

Water security in semi-arid, transboundary regions like the Cuvelai-Etosha Basin in northern Namibia is increasingly threatened by climate variability, population growth, and rising multi-sectoral water demands. Despite the basin’s critical hydrological and socio-economic importance, it lacks integrated modelling frameworks to support evidence-based planning and equitable water allocation. This study addresses this gap by developing a Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP)-based model to assess current and future water availability at sub-seasonal and seasonal timeframes, incorporating gender-responsive and stakeholder-informed scenarios. Adopting a mixed-methods approach, the research combines quantitative hydrological modelling with participatory engagement to ensure contextual relevance and legitimacy. Quantitative inputs include climate data, canal infrastructure, and sector-specific water use, while qualitative methods capture gender-differentiated water needs and planning priorities.

The findings aim to inform adaptive water allocation, infrastructure development, and drought/flood mitigation strategies for Namibia’s national water planning priorities. Specifically, the WEAP-based model is designed to support basin-scale decision-making by enabling sustainable allocation, strengthening climate-resilient planning, and fostering gender-inclusive water management. At a broader scale, the study contributes to the “Co-Design of Hydrometeorological Information System for Sustainable Water Resources Management in Southern Africa” (Co-HYDIM-SA), a research initiative under the Water Security in Southern Africa (WASA) programme. By generating actionable hydrometeorological intelligence, the model provides a foundational planning tool that feeds into the regional decision-support system aimed at enhancing resilience to climate extremes across Southern Africa.

Keywords: Cuvelai-Etosha Basin, WEAP modelling, Water security, IWRM, Climate resilience