Near-future Climate Change in East Asia

This study assesses near-future extreme climate change in East Asia using ERA5, GSOD, and 35 CMIP6 models under SSP245 and SSP585 for 1995–2050. Results show that although recent warming is strongest in the Arctic, East Asia will experience more rapid annual and seasonal warming than both the Arctic and mid-latitudes by 2050, especially under SSP585. An energy-budget analysis attributes this enhanced warming to increased net surface radiation driven by reduced clouds and aerosols, higher SSTs, and greenhouse-gas forcing, with latent and sensible heat fluxes modulating but not offsetting the warming. Observations combined with Niño 3.4 and AO indices reveal that El Niño strongly amplifies summer heat waves, while persistent La Niña and negative AO phases intensify winter cold waves in continental East Asia. These findings highlight East Asia as a hotspot of extreme regional amplification, where anthropogenic forcing and large-scale internal variability jointly increase the risk of severe heat and cold extremes in the near future.

Acknowledgment: This work was supported by the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) grant funded by the Korean Government (MSIT) [RS–2025-24683148].