Assessing Co-Benefits and Unintended Consequences of Climate Adaptation Through Resilience Interdependencies

Climate change, combined with socioeconomic dynamics, is increasingly generating multi-hazard, compounding, and cascading risks, where extreme events occur simultaneously or in close succession and interact across social, ecological, and infrastructural systems. While growing attention has been given to understanding interacting and compound hazards and exposure, far less research has examined how resilience and vulnerability factors themselves interact in multi-hazard contexts. In particular, there is limited empirical evidence on whether the capacities that enhance resilience to one hazard also contribute to, or potentially undermine, resilience to other hazards. As a result, decision-makers often lack guidance on which adaptation actions are robust under compounding and cascading risk scenarios.

Improving understanding of these dynamics is critical because adaptation interventions can generate both co-benefits and unintended consequences across hazards. Measures designed to enhance resilience against a single extreme event may lead to maladaptation by diverting scarce resources, reinforcing inequalities, or increasing exposure to other risks. Conversely, integrated interventions may enhance resilience to multiple hazards simultaneously. Identifying such synergies and trade-offs is essential for effective, efficient, and equitable adaptation planning, particularly in resource-constrained settings.

We examine these challenges through a case study of Kuwait City, focusing on extreme heat and flooding as interacting climate risks in an arid urban context. Methodologically, the study combines a community resilience measurement framework, called Climate Resilience Measurement for Communities (CRMC), with complex system mapping using Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping (FCM). A mixed-methods data collection strategy was employed, including an online household survey of 778 respondents, interviews with 13 key informants, and analysis of secondary data, to measure 76 resilience indicators related to flood and heat risks in Kuwait. In addition, participatory system-mapping sessions with local stakeholders were conducted to elicit and co-develop cognitive maps capturing relationships and interdependencies among resilience components and adaptation actions, drawing on local knowledge and experience. The combined FCMs were used to assess the co-benefits and unintended consequences of adaptation measures for flood and heat in Kuwait.   

We present this participatory system-mapping approach as a useful method for identifying interdependencies across climate risks, enabling the systematic identification of co-benefits and unintended consequences in a multi-hazard environment. By explicitly capturing interlinkages among resilience components and adaptation actions, the study argues that complex climate risk interactions must be considered when identifying and prioritising effective adaptation strategies. This study advances understanding of systemic resilience in multi-hazard contexts and supports the design of adaptation strategies that account for compounding risks and interconnected resilience pathways.