Monitoring conflict-driven ground deformation in agricultural land using Sentinel-1 LiCSBAS time series.

Soil degradation can intensify abruptly during armed conflict due to heavy machinery traffic and earthworks that compact cropland soils and disrupt surface structure. We develop field-scale, remote-sensing indicators of conflict-driven soil compaction in agricultural land in the Western Negev (Israel) using the Sentinel-1 InSAR time series. Sentinel-1A IW ascending and descending acquisitions (2017-2024) were processed with LiCSAR interferograms and LiCSBAS time-series analysis to estimate line-of-sight (LOS) velocity and cumulative displacement. To isolate conflict-related impacts, the time series was analyzed in two periods: pre-war (before 7 October 2023) and post-war (from 7 October 2023 onward), treating this date as a structural change point. InSAR-derived metrics were linked to Ministry of Agriculture field and damage polygons to extract per-field velocity trends, cumulative displacement, and incremental displacement between consecutive acquisitions. Pre-war conditions were largely stable, with most fields exhibiting LOS velocities within ±2 mm yr⁻¹. Post-war maps reveal spatially coherent subsidence in reported damaged parcels, frequently exceeding -10 mm yr⁻¹ and locally reaching below -30 mm yr⁻¹, consistent with severe soil compaction and disturbance. Time series show abrupt step changes and negative displacement “shock” events after the onset of the conflict, while adjacent parcels often remain stable, highlighting strong heterogeneity at the field scale. The proposed indicator set, velocity shifts, cumulative displacement changes, and incremental deformation anomalies provide a rapid, scalable framework for screening soil degradation, prioritizing remediation, and tracking recovery trajectories in data-scarce, crisis-affected agricultural landscapes.
Keywords: soil degradation, soil compaction, Sentinel-1, InSAR time series, LiCSBAS, conflict impacts, agricultural damage mapping