Sensitivity of economic sectors to changes in climatic impact-drivers on example of the EU-funded project APENA3 for the development of climate adaptation strategies in Ukraine

Sensitivity to changes in climate conditions is a key component in the Climate Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (CRVA) of economic sectors and other assets. According to the AR6 IPCC Dictionary, Vulnerability is a component of Risk and is defined as: “The propensity or predisposition to be adversely affected. Vulnerability encompasses a variety of concepts and elements, including sensitivity or susceptibility to harm and lack of capacity to cope and adapt.”. Sensitivity is defined as “The degree to which a system or species is affected, either adversely or beneficially, by climate variability or change…”; while the latest can be estimated by change in Climatic Impact-Drivers (CIDs) that are “Physical climate system conditions (e.g., means, events, extremes) that affect an element of society or ecosystems…”

This conceptual framework was applied in the EU-funded APENA3 project ”Strengthening the capacity of regional and local administrations for implementation and enforcement of EU environmental and climate change legislation and development of infrastructure projects”, where Component 3 focused on the development of climate adaptation strategies and implementation plans for three pilot oblasts in Ukraine. As these strategies were intended to serve as guidance for other regions and to contribute to the future National Adaptation Plan, the selection of economic sectors and methodological approach was aligned with EU policy priorities and IPCC definitions.

In total, 12 main economic sectors were assessed (16 including subsectors): agriculture (crop farming and livestock), forestry, biodiversity and ecosystems (terrestrial and freshwater), water management, fisheries and aquaculture, tourism (recreation and travel, ski, and beach), land and water transport, energy infrastructure, health, built environment, disaster management, and cultural heritage. Coastal areas were additionally considered.

Sectoral sensitivity was quantified using weighting coefficients for 32 CIDs grouped into five IPCC categories: heat and cold, wet and dry, snow and ice, wind, and coastal. Weighting coefficients were derived through structured expert workshops involving sectoral specialists and reflect comparative expert judgement on sector susceptibility to changes in each CID. The methodology required that the sum of weighting coefficients for each sector equalled 10 arbitrary units, ensuring internal consistency, comparability across sectors, and the development of unified sensitivity matrices for CRVA applications.

As an example, we will present results based on the obtained sensitivity for CRVA of crop farming and animal husbandry across Ukraine, developed within the EU4ClimateResilience project, co-funded by the EU and the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Climate Action, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (BMUKN), and implemented by the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). The same sensitivity methodology was also applied to the CRVA of four transport modes: road, railway, aviation, maritime and inland waterway.

By definition, sectoral sensitivity to changes in CIDs is independent of geographical location. Consequently, the obtained sensitivity coefficients are scalable and transferable, allowing application of the methodology to CRVA exercises in other regions and countries with comparable economic sectors.