Modeling of the German electricity generation from run-of-river power plants with high spatiotemporal resolution

Hydroelectric power, particularly from run-of-river power plants, is one of the oldest forms of electricity generation from renewable energies. In the context of the rapidly increasing share of variable renewables, such as photovoltaics and wind power [1], the continuous supply of electricity from run-of-river power plants will become an important factor for a successful energy transition [2]. In order to study the effects of this renewable energy on power systems, particularly its contribution to grid stability, spatiotemporally resolved electricity generation data from run-of-river power plants are very useful. The lack of publicly accessible hydroelectric power feed-in data for Germany, especially from the many existing small power plants with installed capacities below 0.25 MW, makes it necessary to estimate the electricity generation for a geographical area and time period under investigation with the help of numerical simulations.

This contribution shows how such a simulation model, which also belongs to the Renewable Spatial-Temporal Electricity Production (ReSTEP) model collection [3], can be created using freely available power plant data and so-called plant load factors as input information. The plant load factors, which relate the hydroelectric power feed-in produced in a certain Transmission System Operator (TSO) region to the average installed capacity of run-of-river power plants in that region, consist of hourly resolved values to ensure the numerical simulations have a high temporal resolution. Once such load factors are calculated for the German TSO regions, the electricity generation can be straightforwardly simulated using the installed capacities and operating times of the investigated run-of-river power plants. After successful model validation, this ReSTEP model was applied to an ensemble of 7,687 run-of-river power plants, with a total installed capacity of 4.73 GW, to simulate their electricity generation for the year 2020. Using such disaggregated simulation results, the electricity generation from run-of-river power plants can be studied on various spatiotemporal scales and presented as highly resolved maps for Germany.

References

[1] Lehneis, R., Manske, D., Schinkel, B., Thrän, D. Modeling of the power generation from wind turbines with high spatial and temporal resolution. EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-19913, 2020. https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-19913

[2] Harnisch, F., Lehneis, R. The power grids need to be made ready for a circular and bio-based economy. Next Sustainability 2023, 2, 100010. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.nxsust.2023.100010

[3] Lehneis, R. Effects of climate change on wind power generation: A case study for the German Bight. Energies 2025, 18, 3287. https://doi.org/10.3390/en18133287