Transferability of resilience in informal settlements (TRIS): a model for assessing climate risk and empowering women as decision-makers

Approximately one billion people live in informal settlements on marginal land, where climate risks intersect with inadequate infrastructure, insecure tenure, and weak state support. These structural conditions heighten vulnerability and disproportionately burden residents—especially women—with disaster preparedness, risk communication, and everyday adaptation. Yet, they have developed under-recognized forms of collective organization, situated knowledge, and adaptive practices. Addressing these gaps, this study develops and tests a community-based, transferable Climate Risk Assessment (CRA) model tailored to informal settlements.

 

The CRA unfolds in four phases: (1) mapping local leadership structures and civil society organizations; (2) technical–community mapping of risk and resilience dynamics; (3) integrating the Climate–Gender–Favela Nexus; and (4) adapting and transferring the CRA framework across Global South contexts. The model was implemented in Jardim Colombo, an informal settlement in São Paulo (≈12,000 residents; 814.4 inhabitants/ha), through an iterative process shaped by local priorities, community leadership, and multi-actor engagement.

 

Phase 1 conceptualized resilience as a multi-scalar, relational process shaped by leaders, NGOs, and residents across social, environmental, educational, and political spheres. Phase 2 integrated open-access geospatial data with gender-disaggregated household interviews (n = 304 adults) to map hazards, exposure, and vulnerability. Phase 3 examined the climate–gender–favela nexus through focus groups with women (n = 64), in-depth interviews with multi-actor (n = 12), a workshop with the Community Leadership Board (n = 7), and a co-designed 3D participatory modelling session with women residents and Civil Defense (n = 26), centering women’s leadership and collective practices in risk assessment and resilience-building.

 

Findings reveal a densely built, infrastructure-poor environment—marked by narrow alleys, steep stairways, improvised electrics, inadequate drainage, and “buried” dwellings with poor light and ventilation—exposed to multi-hazards, including extreme heat, landslides, and flash floods. Surface temperatures are up to 8 °C higher near favelas than in tree-covered areas; microclimate simulations show a 20 °C mean radiant temperature difference between an open street and a tunnel-like alley, and indoor temperatures of 36 °C in fibre-cement roof dwellings on open street versus 29 °C in similar dwellings on alleys. Slopes of 8–45% intensify runoff, erosion, and flash floods, while precarious drainage heightens sanitary risks and the probability of flooding and landslides.

 

Socioeconomic vulnerability is driven by widespread insecure tenure (85% without titles), absence of nearby public schools, low educational attainment (30% with incomplete primary), low income (44% earning ≤ R$ 2,000), and precarious access to water, electricity, and sanitation. Gender-disaggregated data show that women have lower incomes and education than men, and that 8 in 10 simultaneously carry productive, reproductive, and community management responsibilities, amplifying both their exposure to climate risks and their socioeconomic vulnerability.

 

CRA has informed co-produced recommendations for climate adaptation and risk reduction, spanning low- and high-complexity interventions that integrate public policy, infrastructure upgrades, and nature-based solutions. The final phase will synthesise the 12‑month process with community leaders and women residents to refine the model and assess its limitations, before piloting its transferability in an informal settlement in Mozambique to advance South–South learning and more inclusive climate risk governance.