How Much Water Is Embedded in Trade? A Systematic Review and Research Roadmap for Morocco under Climate Change

Water scarcity across the Mediterranean is increasingly forcing economies that are deeply integrated into global markets to balance export performance with long-term water sustainability. Research on “virtual water” and trade-related water footprints has grown rapidly, yet it remains fragmented: studies rely on diverse frameworks (physical accounting, MRIO, life-cycle assessment, and hybrids), use non-uniform scarcity metrics, and often treat climate projections and adaptation only implicitly. This review asks: which methods are currently used to estimate the water footprint of trade under climate constraints, what limits their comparability, and what methodological protocol is needed for a robust, policy-relevant application to Morocco? By framing trade-related water footprints as part of coupled human–water systems, the review highlights how economic structures, trade choices, and climate-driven water scarcity interact and generate feedbacks relevant for water governance and policy design.

We follow a PRISMA-type workflow based on systematic searches in Scopus and Web of Science, with explicit inclusion/exclusion criteria and standardized data extraction. Studies are coded along five dimensions: (i) data type (monetary vs. physical); (ii) modelling approach (IO/MRIO, LCA, hybrid); (iii) treatment of scarcity (stress factors, availability indicators, scarcity-adjusted footprints); (iv) integration of climate change (scenarios, downscaling, hydrological modelling); and (v) potential to inform policy (efficiency improvements, reallocation options, abstraction caps, and economic or trade-related instruments). Institutional sources are used in a complementary way to document indicator frameworks and datasets, without replacing the peer-reviewed evidence base.

The review delivers (1) an operational typology of methods used to quantify trade-related water footprints under climate stress; (2) a diagnosis of key comparability barriers (spatial resolution, upstream embodied water through inputs, and the limited use of dynamic approaches); and (3) a practical empirical agenda linking hydrological projections, water-extended input–output frameworks, and decision-relevant scarcity metrics. Outputs will be shared through a reusable coding grid and an analytical framework diagram to support country studies and comparative work across the Mediterranean.