Operational Sea Ice Information as a Digital Twin

Operating in the polar regions is growing increasingly important due to expanding research needs, emerging economic opportunities and efforts to protect national sovereignty.

Ships operating in the Arctic and Antarctic face heightened risks and more severe consequences in the event of an accident due to sea ice, icebergs, harsh sea states, low visibility and extreme temperatures. These hazards are compounded by sparse infrastructures and remoteness, with immediate assistances not readily available during emergencies.

While climate change is quickly reducing the amount of sea ice, this does not necessarily translate to a reduction in risk in the short-term. On the contrary, uncertainly due to changing sea ice conditions, and an increase in icebergs due to melting glaciers, can increase risk.

The operational sea ice community provides information to lessen risk to life, property and the environment and to improve operational efficiency. That information is used by ships to avoid or navigate through sea ice, by ship operators in planning polar voyages, and by policy makers to assess the impact of climate change on future decisions regarding polar operations. Beyond safety, these services also increase operational efficiency by enabling optimized routing, reduced fuel consumption, and shorter transit times.

The information provided by the operational sea ice community comes from in-situ measurements, satellite earth observation data, and sophisticated models of the atmosphere, oceans, sea ice, and icebergs. These data streams have historically been assembled and interpreted by highly trained human analysts. Given the rapid increase in the amount of data that needs to be analyzed and the constraints on workforces due to government fiscal reductions, their work is increasingly being assisted by artificial intelligence. Furthermore, because sea ice is highly dynamic and can change within a matter of hours, automation and AI are indispensable for providing real-time and forecast information.

The operational sea ice workflows have many of the attributes of an Earth System Digital Twin:

• Utilization of detailed digital models of relevant earth systems (atmosphere, ocean, sea ice),
• Continuous incorporation of near-real-time data from in-situ sensors and earth observation satellites,
• Use of artificial intelligence and machine learning,
• Generation of predictive models and forecasts, and
• Provision of advance analytics and decision support tools to allow end-users to optimize their choices.

In fact, much of the information both used and generated by the operational sea ice community is available in Destination Earth, the initiative of the European Commission to develop a digital twin of the Earth.

This presentation will examine the provision of operational sea ice information as an example of the application of digital twins to provide actionable insights on climate adaptation and disaster risk reduction. It will present current capabilities, AI-enabled workflows, and lessons learned from operational implementation, with a focus on supporting safe and sustainable polar shipping.