Impact of global low-carbon technology trade on future energy structure transformation

Curbing carbon emissions to meet the targets set in the Paris Agreement requires the global deployment of low-carbon technologies (LCTs), including solar photovoltaics, wind turbines, bioenergy systems, electric vehicles, and carbon capture and storage (CCS). The positive impact of global LCT trade on environmental performance has been widely confirmed, but quantifying its influence on national energy structures remains a critical and pressing task. This study quantifies the impact of global LCT trade on greenhouse gas emissions and energy structure transformation under shared socio-economic pathway scenarios (SSPs). The results indicate that: (1) the emission reduction potential of global LCT trade is uneven. Developed regions can achieve effective carbon reduction through LCT trade, while developing regions generate higher greenhouse gas emissions as a result of participation in LCT trade; (2) LCT trade promotes the green transformation of energy structures in developed regions. By 2050, the share of renewable energy in developed countries is projected to increase by nearly 15% under the influence of global LCT trade; (3) trade in LCTs can improve overall social welfare while reducing carbon emissions, but this sustainable development effect is observed primarily in developed regions; and (4) the technological sophistication of traded products leads to heterogeneous carbon reduction effects across regions. This study highlights the need to reduce tariffs, promote the liberalization of LCT trade, and enhance the technological content of traded products to facilitate the global dissemination of green technologies.