Effects of international crop trade on drought risk of conflict-affected countries

Extreme weather events like droughts can compromise food security, which can in turn trigger cascading impacts, such as increased risks of violent conflicts, particularly in vulnerable regions. While drought risk assessments are typically done at a domestic level, a considerable share of consumed food globally is obtained through international trade, which is often neglected.

This study integrates drought risk data with agricultural trade data to understand how drought risk propagates through the global food system. We focus on conflict-affected countries due to their particular vulnerability to extreme weather impacts and reliance on food imports. Specifically, we develop a framework to quantify drought risk associated with domestic production and crop imports, which we define as composite drought risk. This is done combining gridded drought risk data with crop production and trade for 23 countries.

Our findings reveal that while most conflict-affected countries face drought risk primarily through domestic production, incorporating trade networks substantially alters their risk profiles (>10% change in 13 countries, reaching 40%–50% in some cases). Import-related drought risk contributes over 10% of high drought exposure in 21 countries, reaching 80% in the most trade-dependent nations. We also identify critical trade dependencies that concentrate drought risk from specific partners.

Our approach demonstrates the added value of accounting for both direct climate hazards and socioeconomic pathways (represented by the international crop trade network) when assessing drought impacts on food security. Based on that, we suggest potential strategies considering domestic and trade measures tailored to countries’ composite drought risk profiles to improve food security.