Linking LULCC (SSP1-SSP5) scenarios to forest regeneration via wolf-deer-browsing dynamics in boreal forest

Forestry, agriculture, and urbanisation are adding further pressure to the ongoing climate-driven regime shift in boreal forest cover from dense to open state in Scandinavia. Such a change risks deer and their predator wolf populations in the boreal habitat. Changes in deer population and their natural predator wolves redistribute browsing pressure, thereby modulating forest regeneration trajectories that provides feed back to forest cover. We developed a hybrid empirical-process-based modelling framework that unites scenario-driven Land Use Land Cover (LULC) change with grey wolf (Canis lupus), moose, and roe deer density dynamics. The framework couples: (i) LUCAS LUC v1.2 land-cover fractions and scenario projections (SSP1-1.9 to SSP5-8.5), (ii)  snow depth (ERA5 for historical conditions; CMIP6-based projections for future periods), (iii) roe deer and moose calves harvest data and future projection based on vegetation cover using Random Forest models, and (iv) wolf pack-territory size density and distribution data on a 50 × 50 km grid across Scandinavia from SKANDULV for training (1999-2015), and model performance validation (2016-2024). We quantified “regimes” as statistically distinct 6-year states of the coupled system based on the temporal resolution of LULCC predictors. We designed our model outputs as an interactive map to be simultaneously management-relevant and scientifically informative for 3 variables: (a) number of wolf territories per grid cell, (b) mean territory size, and (c) wolf density. Regime shift in these variables implies decreased spatial coverage of predation risk and altered spatial concentration of moose and roe deer, therefore, redistributed browsing pressure in our interactive map. These browsing-pressure changes provide a mechanistic bridge to Earth-system relevance by shaping forest structure via regeneration. Across the study period, we identified seven unique regimes. Scenario evaluation indicated SSP5-8.5 (SSP585) best matched observed patterns during 2016-2024 for wolves and prey. Under SSP585-driven LULCC, moose-calf harvest projection shows 2-3% increment in the north, which supports a northward increase in suitable habitat area by mid-century, and a subsequent 7.6%  increase in wolf territory number in the north. Urban/crop expansion and linear features increment expands mean territory size 3-5% expansion in southern territories, while causing >3% decline in territory number in the south. The projected northward redistribution corresponds to an approximate additional 7.6% area of potential wolf-mediated deer regulation that could reduce browsing pressure on regenerating forests. Our result implies a spatial shift in zones where wolf-mediated deer regulation, and consequent browsing damage control, may reinforce or counteract land-based carbon and restoration strategies. Our scenario-based interactive maps are a decision-support tool and enable adaptive land management (zoning, hunting quotas, and conflict mitigation) and integrate biodiversity-mediated regulation into LULCC planning, explicitly addressing co-benefits and compromises between climate-focused land strategies and wildlife-human coexistence.