Attributing consecutive hot and dry compound events to climate change

In recent years, an increasing frequency of heatwaves and drought events have been experienced, with growing socioeconomic and environmental impacts, particularly in the agricultural sector.  The occurrence of these compound extremes in consecutive years amplifies their effects, leading to greater economic losses. Consecutive droughts can significantly affect vegetation growth and place additional stress on agricultural systems. When hot and dry compound extremes occur over multiple years, their impacts become even more pronounced, as they hinder the recovery of crops and strongly affect agricultural productivity.

In this study, we explore the use of univariate, bivariate and temporal compound attribution to show how climate change is influencing the probability of single, compound, and consecutive extreme events. In particular, we propose a case study in Belgium to investigate how the probability of consecutive extremes is changing in a warmer climate. The aim of the study is to highlight the urgency of increasing attention on both the impact of the single events and the larger impacts that can be caused by the more frequent consecutive extremes and consecutive co-occurrent extremes. Finally, we discuss some of possible implications of these findings for policymakers and practitioners involved in climate adaptation and risk management.