When Prevention Fails: Law, Administration and the Politics of Natural Risk

 

Natural risks - such as floods, earthquakes, wildfires and extreme climate events - pose growing challenges to public administrations, calling into question traditional legal categories of prevention, planning, and administrative responsibility. The increasing frequency and intensity of such events, combined with scientific uncertainty and climate change, require administrative systems to operate under conditions of structural risk rather than exceptional emergency. This panel examines the legal role of public administration in the governance of natural risk, focusing on administrative law instruments, decision-making processes, and accountability mechanisms. Particular attention is paid to the shift from ex post emergency management to ex ante risk prevention and mitigation, including spatial planning, environmental regulation, civil protection frameworks, and precautionary approaches. The discussion highlights how risk reshapes administrative discretion, procedural duties, and the relationship between scientific expertise and legal decision-making. The panel also addresses the issue of public liability and institutional responsibility, exploring how courts and oversight bodies assess administrative action or inaction in the face of foreseeable natural hazards. Questions of standard of care, proportionality, and reasonableness are analyzed in light of evolving jurisprudence and regulatory models. Furthermore, the panel considers the multilevel dimension of risk governance, involving local, national and supranational authorities, and the tensions between decentralization, coordination and effectiveness. By adopting a comparative and interdisciplinary legal perspective, the panel aims to contribute to a deeper understanding of how administrative law can adapt to the governance of natural risk, balancing public safety, environmental protection and the limits of administrative capacity in an era of permanent uncertainty.