Air‑pollution modelling for health‑risk assessment under future climate scenarios in Germany

Ambient air pollution is the leading environmental threat to human health worldwide. In Europe, ongoing emission-control measures are expected to reduce pollutant concentrations, but rising temperatures associated with climate change may heighten human vulnerability to these pollutants. Therefore, it is important to consider effects of increasing temperatures when considering future air pollution effects on human health. To do so, however, consistent air-quality climate simulations are needed, with spatial resolution sufficient for detailed health assessment.

Here, we present an approach for a detailed health assessment for Germany considering future climate and air pollution scenarios. The approach is based on health data from the German National Cohort (NAKO, nako.de) and exposure data from model simulations with the global-regional chemistry climate model MECO(n) with resolution up to 2 km over Germany. The NAKO has more than 200 000 participants and started in 2014. First, we link MECO(n) exposure data (2014‑2021) to the health data. In a second step, health effects for future conditions are analyzed based on future exposure data.

We will present the framework in detail, with a focus on the exposure modelling. In addition, we will present first analyses of the present-day exposure data including an assessment of the temporal trends of the exposure data over the present-day period. Additionally, we will examine how emission reductions influence exposure, using model‑based source‑apportionment to demonstrate their role in present‑day exposure declines.