Integrating Stakeholder Knowledge and Multi-Criteria Risk Assessment for Climate-Resilient Water Management in Southern Africa

Southern Africa faces escalating challenges to water management and food security as climate change intensifies pressures on water availability, quality, and equitable access. In the Cuvelai-Etosha, Cunene River and Upper Limpopo River Basins, highly variable rainfall, recurrent floods and droughts, ephemeral river systems, and high evaporation rates compound vulnerabilities. Rapid urbanization, agricultural demands, ecosystem degradation, and socio-economic instability further increase communities’ vulnerability, directly affecting livelihoods, irrigation, and reliable food access. Effective responses require integrated, climate-sensitive approaches that address environmental, social, and institutional dimensions of risk, strengthen adaptive capacities, and prioritize locally appropriate water management strategies.

Under the Co-Design of a Hydrometeorological Information System for Sustainable Water Resources Management in Southern Africa (Co-HYDIM-SA) project, part of the Water Security in Africa (WASA) Programme, we implement a participatory, multi-criteria decision-making framework to assess flood and drought risks. The methodology integrates hazard, exposure, and vulnerability indicators derived from remote sensing, climate records, hydrological and water storage data, socio-economic statistics, and local knowledge. Indicators lists for risk factors are compiled from literature and discussed with stakeholders during workshops, where they are prioritized and weighted to reflect both empirical evidence and local perspectives, ensuring that assessments capture local priorities, perceptions, and decision-making needs.

The approach generates spatially explicit flood and drought risk maps, supporting the co-design of the CUVEWIS hydro-meteorological information system to guide climate-resilient water governance. By capturing the spatio-temporal dynamics of floods and droughts, including ephemeral iishana flows in the Cuvelai-Etosha Basin, and incorporating socio-political and economic drivers of vulnerability, the project strengthens adaptive capacities at multiple scales. Flood and drought hazards and exposure are analysed through diverse indicators such as rainfall variability, soil moisture, groundwater stress, and surface water extent, while vulnerability incorporates water and food access, livelihoods, infrastructure, and coping capacity.

By combining research, stakeholder engagement, and practical tools, this work demonstrates how localized, evidence-based strategies can guide adaptive water management. Addressing the entanglement of hydrological risks with social inequalities highlights the value of interdisciplinary, participatory approaches for operationalizing early warning systems, improving risk communication, and supporting sustainable, inclusive water management. Beyond the studied transboundary basins, this framework offers transferable insights for climate-resilient water management across Southern Africa and contributes to broader regional and global dialogues on integrated water resource governance under climate change.

Key words: Flood and drought risk, participatory risk assessment, water security, vulnerability, multi-criteria decision approach.

Acknowledgement: The WASA programme in Germany was launched under the leadership of the Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF), with the collaboration of six additional federal ministries and their respective institutions.