From risk knowledge to effective early actions: a novel framework and application for impact-based early warning with a pilot study in Eastern Africa

Impact-based early warning (IbEW) aims at integrating knowledge about risks and impacts with timely, understandable and actionable warnings, thus enabling targeted early actions that can help reduce risks in the face of impending hazards. However, applications are still scarce, and an established risk-informed framework to guide assessment and inform early actions has yet to emerge. Drawing on the outcomes of a research project in Eastern Africa, with pilot studies in Kenya and Ethiopia, we have developed an IbEW application for drought and flood risks, spanning from conceptualization to co-development and implementation, informed by a novel IbEW framework. Drought risks are of particular significance in the region, with recent events exacting disruptive tolls on the lives and livelihoods of millions of people. To capture their characteristics and warn for these impacts, we have developed a drought IbEW methodology for rainfed agriculture (informed by co-developed conceptual risk models) that combines spatial hazard information (using the combined drought indicator - CDI), dynamic exposure of cropland (by accounting for crop-specific calendar variability and phenological stages), and contextual warning information on multiple dimensions of vulnerability of rainfed farming households and specific vulnerable groups (women and girls, persons with disabilities, and people in camps setting). Focusing on three staple crops (maize, wheat, sorghum), our application produces automated assessments of multiple combinations of drought hazard, crop types, phenological stages, and possible impacts on crop production quantity at both dekadal and monthly accumulation periods, packaging contextualized warning messages in an intuitive narrative format. Our system was co-developed with and validated by national and subnational experts and stakeholders through multiple stages, and aims to deliver actionable information to people at risk and to organizations and institutions responsible for disaster response and risk management.