EGU26-15195, updated on 14 Mar 2026
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-15195
EGU General Assembly 2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Oral |
Tuesday, 05 May, 12:15–12:25 (CEST) Room 2.95
A multi-parameter definition of climate change velocity
1,1,1- 1University of Geneva, Institute for Environmental Sciences & Group of Applied Physics, Geneva 4, Switzerland (jerome.kasparian@unige.ch)
- 2Department of Quantum Matter Physics, University of Geneva, Quai Ernest-Ansermet 24, 1205 Geneva, Switzerland
In order to assess whether natural and human systems can adapt or migrate rapidly enough to keep pace with changing environmental conditions, it is essential to understand the spatial velocity of climate change. Current approaches of climate change velocity can, in principle, be applied to any climate variable, but they require a continuously varying scalar field. This constraint limits their practical application to single-variable analyses, because climate change impacts on ecological, agricultural, urban, economic, and human systems are inherently multi-parameter [1].
The recently introduced Monte-cArlo iTerative Convergence metHod (MATCH) [2] provides a continuous and ecologically relevant estimate of climate change velocity [3], although limited to a single climate parameter at once. In this study, we extend MATCH by introducing a multi-parameter definition of climate change velocity, enabling the computation of velocity for any chosen combination of climate variables. This generalisation enables the dynamics of climate change to be described in a manner that is specifically tailored to the processes or systems being investigated.
We assess the potential of this framework by focusing on species distribution shifts. Using data from the Audubon Christmas Bird Count, we identify the optimal set of climate parameters required to characterize the shift of the ecological niche of North American bird species and compute their corresponding multi-parameter climate velocity. This approach provides new insight into the pace and direction of habitat change and offers a quantitative basis for anticipating species range shifts and supporting adaptive conservation strategies.
1 H. Allaman, S. Goyette, P.-H. Dubuis, J. Kasparian, Future viability of European vineyards using bioclimatic climate analogues, Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 378, 110978 (2026)
2 I. Gaponenko, G. Rohat, S. Goyette, P. Paruch, J. Kasparian, Smooth velocity fields for tracking climate change, Scientific Reports 12, 2997 (2022)
3 L. Moinat, I. Gaponenko, S. Goyette, J. Kasparian, Comparing ecological relevance of climate velocity indices, Scientific Reports, in press (2026)
How to cite: Kasparian, J., Allaman, H., Gaponenko, I., and Goyette, S.: A multi-parameter definition of climate change velocity, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-15195, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-15195, 2026.
