Integrating a multi-scalar methodology to estimate vulnerability and economic losses for hydrogeomorphological risk assessment in the central Paute River basin, Ecuador

The Intermountain Andean basins are characterized by complex topography and rapid peri-urban expansion. The central Paute River basin faces escalating threats from hydrogeomorphological hazards, particularly flash floods and landslides. Currently, in Ecuador, risk management strategies carried out by national and international institutions often lack high-resolution economic quantification of potential damages (Pinos & Timbe, 2020). This research bridges that gap by developing a multi-scalar methodology to quantify physical vulnerability and estimate economic losses, providing a critical tool for evidence-based land management.

This study integrates hydrogeomorphological hazard analysis with socioeconomic exposure modeling. The databases used are high-resolution digital elevation models from the Military Geographic Institute (SIGTIERRAS, 2014) and high-resolution drone surveys in identified active sectors that characterize the hazard (Torres Ramírez & Freire-Quintanilla, 2022). In contrast, this was coupled with microdata from the 2022 Census, provided by the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INEC, 2022), disaggregated to the census sector level. By applying a dasymetric mapping approach and cross-referencing building typologies with the 2025 Construction Price Index (IPCO) in Ecuador, we established a robust valuation framework for the building stock based on structural vulnerability and replacement costs.

The results reveal a distinct spatial correlation between high-vulnerability clusters and historical hazard events, particularly in the peri-urban periphery of the cantons Biblián, Azogues, Déleg, Paute, and Guachapala, which are among the cantons with the highest migration rates in Ecuador. These areas, defined by steep slopes and non-engineered masonry, exhibit the highest potential for economic loss. Conversely, consolidated urban centers demonstrate lower vulnerability despite high exposure density. This study indicates that integrating census-derived socioeconomic data into physical hazard models significantly refines risk estimation, offering a replicable framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) in the Andean region.

References:

INEC. (2022). Censo de Población y Vivienda. https://www.censoecuador.gob.ec/data-y-resultados/#pix-tab-398c8f9c-4977318

Pinos, J., & Timbe, L. (2020). Mountain Riverine Floods in Ecuador: Issues, Challenges, and Opportunities. Frontiers in Water, 2. https://doi.org/10.3389/frwa.2020.545880

SIGTIERRAS. (2014). Mosaicos de ortofotos a nivel nacional. Sistema Nacional de Información de Tierras Rurales e Infraestructura Tecnológica. Quito, Ecuador. https://bit.ly/2twJiRn

Torres Ramírez, R., & Freire-Quintanilla, K. (2022). Vehículos aéreos no tripulados en el análisis y monitoreo de eventos adversos en la zona centro de la cuenca del río Paute, Ecuador. XVII Coloquio Ibérico de Geografía, 312–331.