Near-real time quantification of volcanic ash plume parameters in Aotearoa New Zealand through seismo-acoustic methods

All active volcanoes in Aotearoa New Zealand can erupt explosively, potentially dispersing volcanic ash across much of the country. Ash can be highly disruptive and damaging to the agricultural industry, critical infrastructure, and human health. Therefore, accurate and rapid ash dispersion and ashfall forecasts are necessary to enable timely and informed decisions for protecting New Zealanders and their property. While such forecasts do currently exist, they rely on poorly constrained input parameters (e.g., eruption start time, duration, mass eruption rate). Here we aim to develop a new purpose-built seismo-acoustic code package for volcano observatories to help constrain eruption source parameters as rapidly as possible after the start of an eruption. The package will include various theoretical and empirical models to link seismic and acoustic signal properties from eruptions of various sizes from local (< 100 km) to global (>5000 km) distances. Tests will be carried out on seismo-acoustic data from eruptions within Aotearoa New Zealand (e.g., Te Maari, Whakaari) and from across the SW Pacific. Ultimately this package will be part of a larger open-access software suite to constrain eruption source parameters that draws on a range of data (e.g., satellite, radar, GNSS, webcams) to help rapidly produce robust ash dispersion and ashfall forecasts.