A Fully Automated CME Simulation Pipeline Developed by the CLEAR Space Weather Center of Excellence

The Center for All-Clear Solar Energetic Particle Forecast (CLEAR) project aims to transform space weather forecasting by delivering robust, quantifiable predictions of solar energetic particles (SEP) up to 24 hours in advance, enabling reliable identification of hazardous conditions and safe “all-clear” periods for astronauts, aviation, and satellite operations. The Solar Wind With Field Lines and Energetic Particles (SOFIE) model is the physics-based model in CLEAR, consisting of the Alfvén Wave Solar atmosphere Model–Realtime (AWSoM-R), which models the background solar wind, the Eruptive Event Generator based on the Gibson–Low flux rope (EEG-GL) tool to determine the input parameters for Coronal Mass Ejections (CME), and the Multiple Field Line particle Advection Model for Particle Acceleration (M-FLAMPA) module that handles the transport and acceleration of SEPs.

We present an automatic version of CME information retrieval and simulation initiation integrated into SOFIE. We utilize the Space Weather Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (DONKI) system available at the Community Coordinated Simulation Center (CCMC) to retrieve new CME detections, then use the CME time, speed, and source location information, alongside with the corresponding National Solar Observatory Global Oscillation Network Group (NSO GONG) magnetogram, as inputs into an algorithm detecting Regions of Interest (ROI). The ROI detection algorithm then, based on the magnetogram, finds the candidate Active Regions (AR) closest to the source location of the CME, and calculates the flux-weighted centroid position of the positive and negative polarities. The polarity coordinates are then passed on to EEG-GL for calculation of the CME input parameters. Once the parameters are determined by EEG-GL, SOFIE will launch an integrated CME and SEP simulation and provide forecasts. Only CMEs whose speed exceeds 800 km/s and half width exceeds 20 degrees will be simulated. 

The automated CME simulation pipeline is a crucial component of the automatic SOFIE pipeline, enabling routine physics-based simulations of SEPs for mission support and operational readiness. The pipeline is to be tested operationally during the Artemis launch scheduled between February and April, and to be used in upcoming missions.