Modelling the Holocene evolution of Flade Isblink

Understanding how ice caps and glaciers respond to climate change is essential for improving projections of present and future sea-level rise. The Holocene provides a valuable time period for this purpose, as it encompasses long-term ice–climate interactions and a transition from colder to warmer conditions comparable to today. 

Here we investigate the Holocene glacial history of the region presently covered by the Flade Isblink ice cap in northeast Greenland, a remote and high-elevation ice mass that is not directly connected to the Greenland Ice Sheet and is therefore particularly sensitive to climate forcing.

Flade Isblink is situated on the Kronprins Christian Land plateau and drains through fast-flowing outlet glaciers into the Arctic Ocean, storing a substantial volume of freshwater. Its geographic setting makes it an excellent indicator of Arctic climate variability. Here, we focus on identifying which parts of the ice cap survived the Holocene Thermal Maximum and on reconstructing ice extent in regions where geological constraints are sparse.

We use a two-dimensional coupled ice-flow and surface mass balance model implemented in the Ice Sheet and Sea-level System Model (ISSM) to simulate ice evolution from 12.4 ka BP to the present. Time-varying bedrock uplift and relative sea-level change are incorporated through an offline glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) solution. To account for uncertainties in climate forcing, we run an ensemble of simulations spanning a range of climate scenarios. Model results are evaluated against geomorphological evidence, dated materials, and present-day ice geometry.