A surface energy balance perspective on the pattern effect

Over the past decade, it has become well-established that the spatial pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) warming exerts a strong control on Earth’s radiative feedbacks at the top of atmosphere (TOA). However, the role of the spatial pattern on other parts of the climate system are less well studied. We aim to understand the role that the SST pattern, and in particular preferential warming of deep convective regions, has on the surface energy budget, noting that the surface energy budget affects the future evolution of the warming pattern.

Our primary method of investigation is through a CMIP6 multi-model analysis of the amip-piForcing experiment. Preliminary analysis with a subset of models shows large differences between the TOA and surface perspectives. e.g., in the TOA, warm pool warming drives negative TOA anomalies due to increased low cloud cover, but has positive surface anomalies from the latent heat flux.