Mapping future human-wildlife conflict risks during habitat degradation and species migration driven by climate and human factors in Southwest China

Due to processes such as climate change, construction, and agricultural expansion, natural habitats have become fragmented and functionally degraded. As a result, numerous wildlife species are forced to migrate to new suitable habitats. During these migrations, their ranges increasingly overlap with human activities, creating potential risks for human-wildlife conflicts. Unlike previous studies relying merely on species distribution models, this study innovatively predicts future human-wildlife conflict risks during wildlife migration driven by habitat degradation in Southwest China in 2030 and 2050. By integrating habitat degradation assessments under multiple climate change and socio-development scenarios with species migration path simulations employing landscape ecology methods, alongside land-use modeling and human footprint data, this study quantifies conflict risks between humans and wildlife species such as takin and wild boar while classifying conflict types. Building upon historical and current conditions, the findings demonstrate that future climate change and human activities will trigger large-scale habitat degradation and significant spatial shifts in suitable habitats. Consequently, a chain reaction—involving increased conflicts, wildlife capture, and questioning of conservation actions—threatens the harmonious relationship between humans and wildlife. This research offers a complementary perspective on understanding climate change impacts on terrestrial life and holds significant value for guiding the optimization of biodiversity conservation planning and policy development.