Understanding the synergy between LAIC and macroscopic pre-earthquake anomalies

This study aims to understand the physical connection between the Lithospheric-Atmospheric-Ionospheric Coupling (LAIC) concept, defined by pre-earthquake anomalies, and a macroscopic one, using an AI-driven, multi-scope approach.

Currently, earthquake precursor information is divided into two main categories: microscopic (detectable by ground- and satellite-based instruments) and macroscopic (detectable by human senses or direct observation). LAIC relies solely on microscopic observations for analysis. In the broader context, macroscopic precursors are physical, biological, or atmospheric phenomena that can be observed by the human senses or basic instruments without requiring complex laboratory analysis. These "anomalies" often occur during the earthquake preparation stage, when tectonic stress has reached a critical level. Very often, the macroscopic anomalies have been met with scientific skepticism, even though these reports are often rooted in historical accounts. In this study, macroscopic information has been used only as a marker of the physical phenomenon, without quantification.

We have analyzed information on the top events in Europe, particularly in the Mediterranean and Alpine regions, which provide some of the most scientifically rigorous documentation of the "Precursor Chain” in Europe. For example, (1) L’Aquila, Italy (2009) – has shown biogeochemical & geodetic synergy, and this event is the modern benchmark for linking radon outgassing with biological responses and satellite-based ground monitoring. (2) Friuli, Italy (1976) – has revealed electromagnetic & luminous synergy, because the Alpine environment of Northern Italy provided a unique case of "rock-to-atmosphere" electrical coupling. (3) Izmit, Turkey (1999) – has revealed geochemical & biological synergy, because the North Anatolian Fault (NAF), though transcontinental, exhibits many European seismic characteristics, including high-density geochemical shifts. (4) Messina, Italy (1908) – has revealed hydrological & atmospheric synergy, and, as one of the most destructive events in European history, this quake was preceded by classic "Dilatancy-Diffusion" indicators. (5) Athens, Greece (1999) – has shown ionospheric & satellite thermal synergy, as Greece sits atop a complex subduction and transform system where atmospheric coupling is frequently observed. (6) Umbria-Marche, Italy (1997) – has shown foreshock & hydrological synergy, along with the Colfiorito sequence, which provided deep insights into how fluids move through the Apennine limestone.

In many cases, our out-of-place findings are entirely unexpected, showing that modern instruments, human and animal observations, and some direct measurements were collected within close timeframes, with re-occurrences of anomalies with similar patterns and time-lags across the same and different seismo-tectonic settings. That might indicate that common multi-parameter coupling mechanisms, similar to LAIC, are in place, and validating them is the next step in this exploration to deepen our understanding of the nature and complexity of pre-earthquake phenomena.